There are only three things I remember from 1st Grade. My teacher was Mrs. Dutro, my lunch was packed in a WWF – now WWE – lunchbox, and I helped my best-friend Kevin make weekly NFL picks.

(My “helping” consisted of glancing over his shoulder as he went over his pick sheet.)

The year was 1991 and up until that point, my life was limited to my family and friends, but this contest connected me to a whole other world outside my “bubble.” I wasn’t even in this league, but I passionately rooted for Kevin’s picks every week. Without the internet and easy access to scores, I wouldn’t even know how Kevin did until the following Wednesday when the next weeks’ sheet arrived.

Our only research consisted of glancing at the standings. Our only rule was always pick the Browns.

Kevin tried to explain what the (-3) meant next to certain teams, but I had no idea what he was talking about. Good luck telling a six-year-old that you lost even though the team you picked won.

And yet, the habit of picking NFL games ATS stuck. It wasn’t long after Mrs. Dutro’s class that we began running our own pools. Don’t worry Mom, we wrote “For Fun Purposes Only” on every single sheet, just in case someone was lazy and got caught with picks-in-hand. We moved on to college, found more degenerates like us, and before you know it we had nearly 100 lost souls rooting for last-second touchdowns in games long since decided.

Malcolm Gladwell wrote that it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert on any subject. Assuming at least fifteen minutes were spent each week making picks, I have accumulated roughly 130 hours of ATS experience. Which means I will be hitting expert level in approximately 2750. So I have that going for me, which is nice.

It’s just as well, because you cannot become an “expert” picking these NFL games Against The Spread. It’s impossible. You can read all the scouting reports, study all of the depth charts, memorize every teams’ ATS history, and then Dwayne Rudd takes his helmet off before the last play is over and you lose $50. Thanks for playing.

I’ve always wanted to play in Westgate’s Super Contest out in Las Vegas. It’s long been considered the most prestigious NFL ATS betting pool. It costs $1,500 to enter, with first place typically taking home $1.3 million. Westgate posts their weekly spreads, and all entrants choose their top five picks. Historically speaking, the winner will have a success rate north of 65%.

Without paying the entry fee, I will be playing at home again this year. Last season I hit on 55%. Not bad, but not good enough to finish in the money (top 50 w/ ties paid). My goal this year is to crack that top-50. But in the same breath, my main goal is to write a post once/week this season. We’ll see if any of those dreams can come true this year.

So what have I learned after all those years of picking NFL ATS games? That I should have paid more attention in Mrs. Dutro’s class.

WEEK ONE PICKS

Cleveland @ Carolina (-1.5)

A couple years ago I posted a history of Browns season openers. The cliff-note version is this: 1-21-1. One win in 23 tries.  I don’t know much, but I know the Browns won’t win this game.

And if they somehow do? Fantastic! I want the Browns to win, but I also want to be happy on Sundays. This pick almost guarantees happiness on some level, and I’m all about maximizing my happiness opportunities.

The Pick: CAR (-1.5)

San Francisco @ Chicago (+7) – Kansas City @ Arizona (+6)

Is Trey Lance any good?  Maybe.  Is Justin Fields any good?  Maybe.  Can the 49ers make it back to the NFC Championship game?  Maybe.  Did I remember the Bears fired their coach and hired someone named Matt Eberflus?  Maybe.  Does Patrick Mahomes know who he’s going to throw the ball to if Travis Kelce is covered?  Maybe.  Will Kyler Murray stop playing video games long enough to study KC’s defensive tendencies?  Maybe.

The point here is there are too many maybes early in the NFL, so I always lean towards underdogs the first couple weeks of the season.

The Picks: CHI (+7) – ARI (+6)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) @ Las Vegas

I’m big a believer in the Los Angeles Chargers – in fact, I believe they would have made it to the Super Bowl last year had Brandon Staley not decided to call a timeout against the Raiders in Week 18.  I also believed in Big Foot until I was in college, so do with this as you will.

The Chargers have arguably the most talented roster in the league, and if Justin Herbert continues to ascend towards MVP status, then they should be able to cover against the Raiders.

Did I have Oakland listed as the Raiders team name until remembering to change it to Las Vegas at the very last second?  Maybe.

The Pick: LAC (-3.5)

Buffalo @ Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)

Please refer to my twitter account for proof of this Thursday night pick.

For transparency’s sake, I am taking #2 – LA Rams (+2.5) tonight in Westgate’s Supercontest.

— Luke Florence (@Luke_Florence1) September 8, 2022

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We’re already off to a blazing hot start.  So much for those road underdogs.

The Pick: LAR (+2.5)

Peace Be The Journey.