Nine days ago my father turned 70.  As he is not one for celebrating on his own regard, I planned a mini golf outing up in Gailon, OH.  Me and three of my friends vs him and three of his.  Having an average age advantage of 35 and playing from the same tee boxes should have been enough for the young guys to take home the victory.  But it wasn’t.

Typically these scrambles come down to putting.  Teams that make ’em win, and those that can’t, don’t.  Our group was the latter.  Hitting 15 of 18 greens should have had us in better position than -4, but we just couldn’t start draining putts in large enough quantities.  Sure, we made a couple, but we missed more.  And when we lined up a 5-foot putt on 18 to take some hard-earned money off of the Retiree Group, all four of us missed on the short-side, including the anchor – yours truly.

It should come as no surprise that I’ve found myself on the short-end of the proverbial stick in a golf match.  My golfing past is littered with close calls that ultimately end in heartbreak.

More than 10 years ago I solo-eagled two consecutive holes in a golf outing but bogeyed the last two and ended up losing by one.

My senior year of high school during a large golf tournament I shot a 34 on the front nine to lead the entire shindig.  I parred the first four holes on the back side but developed shanks on the final five to shoot a staggering inconsistent 80 (34 + 46).  My putt for 79 lipped out.

My junior year of high school I found myself in a playoff to make the final spot on our varsity team for the upcoming league tournament.  I was up by three shots heading into the last hole only to snap hook my drive, clip a tree trying to punch out from the rough, chunk two shots from the middle of the fairway and three putt for a 9.  My opponent bogeyed the last and still won by one.

Knowing where I stand is typically a recipe for disaster.  Having said that, I will no longer be checking the standings of the Westgate SuperContest for the rest of the year.  I’ll just keep my head down and make my picks.  Focus on the next week, the next pick, etc.  See how quickly you can turn into a typical NFL coach making these selections?

Week six was another 3-2 record which while positive has been agonizing in its repetitiveness.  Here are my first five week records:

Week One = 2-3

Week Two = 3-2

Week Three = 3-2

Week Four = 3-2

Week Five = 2-3

Week Six = 3-2

I guess picking NFL ATS games are hard, or maybe I’m just not picking up on these patterns fast enough.  The last two weeks I’ve been burnt by assuming the Eagles would eventually lose, and I flip-flopped on the San Francisco 49ers only to get burned by them twice.

If there’s an overall lesson I’ve learned here it’s this: Always carry cash.  I’ll need it to pay off the inevitable golf and gambling losses.

Here’s to hoping for either an 0-5 or a 5-0 week seven.

WEEK SEVEN PICKS

Green Bay @ Washington (+5)

Yes, the Packers have lost two in a row and yes, the Commanders are coming off a win and finally got rid of Carson Wentz for a couple of weeks.  However, Green Bay still employs Aaron Rodgers and that should be enough for a win and a cover.

The Pick: GB (-5)

Kansas City @ San Francisco (+2.5)

Color me a contrarian, but I don’t believe the addition of Christian McCaffrey will have that large of an impact for San Francisco to justify what they traded away for a 26-year-old/injury prone running back.

Kansas City rebounds after a tough loss last week to Buffalo.

The Pick: KC (-2.5)

New York Giants @ Jacksonville (-3) – New York Jets @ Denver (-1)

I hate the New York Yankees so much that even though common sense says to back both road dogs, I’m going to take the home favorites and hope Aaron Boone only has one more playoff game to manage this year.

Go Guards.

The Picks: JAX (-3) – DEN (-1)

Houston @ Las Vegas (-7)

There’s a decent chance the Texans end up with two top five draft picks this year thanks to the Cleveland Browns.  If they want to continue to increase those odds, they need to lose games like this.

You can take the points, but I’ll grab the home team and the better squad.

The Pick: LV (-7)

Peace Be The Journey.

Last Saturday was a bro-party at the Florence household.  Mom was out on a spa day with friends which left Jack and Dad to their own accord.  As a father, I always enjoy and relish these opportunities, especially since Jack has gotten a little older.  His personality has started to shine through – for better or worse – and I can’t help but see some of myself in him.

As the day was winding down, I asked Jack if he wanted to play one more game.  He went to his playroom and came back with an unexpected surprise – a 755 piece, 3-D Tiger Lego Set.  Jack had received this toy during his 5th birthday party last fall (even though the box clearly states it is designed for those who are 9+) and I immediately feared for my own sanity.However, I had a plan – one that I thought was foolproof.  I would take this poorly chosen present and bury it with a bunch of Jack’s baby/less-used toys.  He’d never take the time to even glance at that bin, let alone sort through all of it to find this tiger set at the bottom.  My assumption was right for nearly six months … until it wasn’t.

You can imagine my shock when after a couple minutes of searching, Jack came back with said Lego set in hand.  “Dad, look what I found!  I’ve been looking for this!  Can we put it together, pleeeeease?”

The universe remains undefeated.

Last week I talked about making mistakes, and I made a couple here.  It wasn’t saying yes despite having less than 90 minutes to Jack’s bedtime.  It was choosing to put together this massive set on the basement carpet and not at a table.  I never thought that some of these Lego pieces would be so small that they could actually get lost in the carpet.  The other mistake was letting Jack open some of the bags.  He made it through the first two with no issue, but the third was giving him some pushback, so he used those newly-developed muscles of his and yanked with all of his might.  The bag gave and the pieces exploded in the sky like a 4th of July Fireworks show.  100+ pieces smaller than my pinky-nail were sent sprawling on our basement carpet.

To Jack’s credit, he immediately went for a flashlight and searched under the furniture and “cleared” them all, one-by-one.  Once we cleaned up to the best of our abilities, I proceeded to Step One (out of 290) and away we went.  The process was slow – made even slower by Jack’s desire to hand me every single piece, but slow motion is better than no motion.

As we reached Step 230, I thought we actually may be able to finish with Jack only being 60 minutes late for bed.  It was bro-day, and as long as we got him to bed before Mom came home, I’d be in the clear.  We had all four legs done, the body and the tail.  All we needed was the tiger’s face and we’d be all done after just a couple of short hours.  But along came Step 276 and the missing piece.  Everything came to a standstill.

We searched and searched but could not locate one small piece that essentially acts as a springboard to the entire face.  Without this piece there would be no eyes and no nose.  Finally, I made the executive decision to stop (my back was entirely grateful for that choice) and to call it a night.  Jack could play with the headless Tiger tomorrow and I’d try to find the piece online.  While we were both disappointed with the result, I tried to take the opportunity to pass along some fatherly advice.

“Everything in it’s own time Jack.  And besides, I bet a lot of kids have a full Tiger, but you might be the only one in the world with a headless Tiger, that’s kind of cool right?”

“Dad, when do you think that piece will get here?”

As any father knows, you win some and you lose the rest.

The lesson – as it applies to these NFL Supercontest picks – is to try and build piece-by-piece throughout the season.  Slow and steady wins this race.  If you go 3-2 every week you’ll eventually be up towards the top.  But that consistency is very hard to come by and you have to be careful not to have a couple negative weeks with missing pieces.

My 3-2 week four mark has me tied for 689th (out of 1598 entries), so another slight drop despite hitting 60% the past three weeks.  Since I’m failing miserably on non-Sunday games this year (2-4), I’m hitting the pause button on Thursday and Monday night games moving forward.

If I had only picked Sunday games this year I would be sitting in 250th place.  But if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.  So much for ifs.

Let’s see if I can continue to build without losing any key pieces during my week five picks.

WEEK FIVE PICKS

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-8.5)

Even though there’s been a ton of close games over the year and even though the Falcons have been one of the best ATS teams through four weeks, I’ll ride with the home favorites.

(Insert Tom Brady divorce joke here)

The Pick: TB (-8.5)

Tennessee @ Washington (+2.5) – Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland (+2.5)

Home dogs can often be looked at as easy selections, especially in rivalry games.  However, these teams hardly ever play each other, and the road teams have a substantial talent advantage that should be enough to cover the small spreads.

I’ll give the points and take the better squads.

The Picks: TEN (-2.5) – LAC (-2.5)

Philadelphia @ Arizona (+5.5)

The Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL, but that won’t last too much longer.  My crystal ball sees it ending here on the road to an under-rated Arizona Cardinal team.

Besides, what’s the chance two different Philadelphia teams defeat a “Cardinal” in the same weekend (Phillies over St. Louis)?  I doubt that’s ever happened and I like having history on my side.

The Pick: ARI (+5.5)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-3)

Before the season I was all-in on Baltimore.  I thought they had the best coach, the best QB, and the best defense in the AFC North.  Four weeks in, despite their 2-2 record, I still hold all of those beliefs.  Had Baltimore managed to beat both the Bills and the Dolphins, this spread would be around a touchdown.

I’ll take those completely made-up extra points Vegas wants to give and ride with the team who stole the Browns from Cleveland.

The Pick: BAL (-3)

Peace Be The Journey.

I’ve made plenty of mistakes as a dad.  Too many to remember.  I’m probably making one right now as you read this.  I let my kid run around the bases at Progressive Field by himself, only to get tripped nearly immediately.  I often get annoyed too quickly when he eats at the speed of a dying person at the dinner table.  I’ve turned him into a fanatical Cleveland Browns fan.

But I have had a couple of minor victories.  To-date, my son Jack hates Brutus and loathes the Ohio State Buckeyes.  His favorite tennis player is Rafael Nadal.  And he loves to eat banana peppers.  All significant wins in Luke Florence’s personal record book.

Jack turned five this past April and we threw him a birthday party at Chuck E. Cheese.  I should clarify that by “we” I mean his mother.  I went golfing.  Probably another of those mistakes I was talking about, but I digress.

As part of his birthday celebration Jack was going to spend 30 seconds in the Ticket Blaster.  I had talked to him about his strategy and how it might make sense to lift up his shirt to try and trap the tickets.  He nodded and went about watching Bluey for the 10000th time.  And yet to my surprise and utter amusement, my wife sent me a video of Jack attempting to catch tickets by lifting up his shirt.

A huge W for Dad.

However, the biggest accomplishment has to be the early establishment of a bed-time routine.  Not only has it completely eliminated any late-night tantrums, it’s also allowed for Jack to hold us accountable as well.  If we end up slacking on any part of this process, he’ll emphatically let us know.

Currently Jack starts his bed-time routine at 8pm.  We clean up our toys and brush our teeth.  We get some water to take to bed and head upstairs for two books.  After we read our two books, we stop at the bathroom (where Jack asks for my ticket only to promptly “eat” it), wash our hands and get tucked in.  I ask Jack if he had any fun, if he was kind and what was his favorite part of the day.  Lights are out around 8:30.

Although the time-slots have pushed back as he’s gotten older, the general bedtime routine has not.  By my calculation we’ve run this particular routine nearly 1,200 times.  By Malcolm Gladwell’s calculation, I’ll have become an expert (10,000 hours) in bed-time routines by the time Jack is 57-and-a-half.

By that age Jack could very well be tucking me in.

As it relates to these NFL picks, how do you stay consistent?  How do you establish a successful routine that won’t end up with tears?

It sounds relatively simple but it’s best to try and take a step back and trust what you see.

Don’t get caught into the recency bias trap.  It’s hard to win in the NFL, harder to win on the road and not all wins (or losses) should be considered the same.

My 3-2 week three mark has me tied for 649th (out of 1598 entries), so a slight drop despite hitting at a 60% clip as the average win total last week for the entire league was 3.02.  I’m not deterred at all but would like a 4- or 5-win week at some point to start climbing a little faster.

Let’s see if I can continue to stay consistent and keep building a winning routine with these week four picks.

WEEK FOUR PICKS

Miami @ Cincinnati (-4)

Despite Miami’s win over Buffalo, this felt like a particular good spot to take the defending AFC Champions hosting a beat-up and tired team on a short week.

Taking Cincy (-4) tonight for Westgate’s Supercontest. Is this the week I finally win a Thursday Night Game? Smart bettors probably stay away from these short-week contests, right?

— Luke Florence (@Luke_Florence1) September 29, 2022

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As Ted Lasso so eloquently said, “How ’bout that?”

The Pick: CIN (-4)

Seattle @ Detroit (-4) – Denver @ Las Vegas (-3)

Despite both Detroit and Las Vegas losing heart-breakers in week two, I still think they are slightly above-average NFL teams who are playing sub-par opponents at home.  I expect both to bounce back with convincing victories in week four.

I’ll give the points and take the better squads.

The Picks: DET (-4) – LV (-3)

Arizona @ Carolina (-1)

I’ve been silently enjoying from afar some of the drama around the Panthers QB this year.  DJ Moore has been a 1,100 yard receiver each of the last three seasons, but through three weeks with his new QB, he’s totaled 7 catches (on 18 targets) for 88 yards.  He looks frustrated, confused and hopeless.  I feel his pain.

But also, sorry not sorry.

The Pick: ARI (+1)

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco (-1.5)

I’m not exactly sure why San Francisco is favored at home against the defending Super Bowl Champions, and usually that confusion makes me stay away.  However, I still believe in Allen Robinson’s fantasy value and I still believe the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC.  If history is any indication, I’ll likely hold onto those beliefs way too long and at a tremendous cost.

But as my good friend Alexander Hamilton once famously penned, “If you stand for nothing Burr, what will you fall for?”

The Pick: LAR (+1.5)

Peace Be The Journey.

My favorite educator in elementary school was my third-grade teacher, Mrs. Marinis.  We played a lot of games in her class to study for tests, like baseball or basketball.  Get a question right and shoot a ball into a trashcan.  Miss a question and you strike-out.  It was perfect for my competitive juices.

Mrs. Marinis also had a great sense of humor which helped me feel completely at ease in her classroom.  I was comfortable expressing my opinion, cracking an occasional joke or even sharing a personal story. I was never afraid of becoming a teacher’s pet, but it often involved shifting my personality slightly to appease the taste of my teacher.  That wasn’t the case with Mrs. Marinis.  She and I were on the same wavelength and just connected.  As clearly evidenced by the following story.

Mrs. Marinis was a lot of great things, but she was not a very good artist.  She was fully self-aware and always quick to tell a self-deprecating story about how she could not draw (two more clear examples of why I loved her).  One afternoon she started drawing an undistinguishable figure on the chalkboard and after a couple of seconds, I jokingly blurted out from the back of the classroom, “that is the most beautifully-drawn witch I’ve ever seen.”  She quickly turned around to stare at me and I immediately thought I had crossed a line in our relationship.  To my surprise she said, “Luke, go to my desk and take every piece of candy you can find.”  Turns out, unbeknownst to me, she actually was trying to draw a witch and was rewarding me for the perceived compliment.  I’ll never forget that moment.

One other memory from Mrs. Marinis’ class was her punishment for forgetting to write our name on top of our papers – we had to stay inside during recess and write our full-name – in cursive – on a piece of paper 50 times.  Missing recess was the ultimate punishment for me and my group of friends, so my best friend Kevin and I decided we would never be penalized.  We proactively prepared by compiling notebooks that exclusively contained our full names.  At one point we each had more than 500 entries, meaning we could hypothetically not put our names on an assignment 10 separate times and we would be spared.  Of course, neither one of us ever forgot to put our names on top of our papers, but we were ready if it happened.

As we enter week three of the 2022 NFL season it’s important to be prepared for anything.  Teams we thought were good before the year started, (Colts, Raiders) may not be.  Teams we thought were bad before the season started (Jaguars, Lions), may not be.  It’s vital to keep an open mind at this early stage and try to capitalize against some lines that may be based in those pre-season evaluations.

My 3-2 week two record has me tied for 595th (out of 1598 entries), so a slight move towards the top.  Winning three games each week is the goal and will continually move me up those rankings as the year progresses.

Let’s see if I can establish some Mrs. Marinis-wavelength connections with these week three picks.

WEEK THREE PICKS

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (-4.5)

After that week two debacle, I told myself I wouldn’t talk about the Browns for one week.  File it under the category of, “if you don’t have anything nice to say, then don’t say anything at all.”

Taking Pittsburgh (+4.5) tonight for Westgate’s Supercontest.

— Luke Florence (@Luke_Florence1) September 22, 2022

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Happy to take one for the team.

The Pick: PIT (+4.5)

Baltimore @ New England (+2.5) – Cincinnati @ New York Jets (+5)

I’m a believer in the AFC North and I think the two best teams in that division can easily beat the two worst teams in the AFC East.  Yes, I know I just wrote about having to prepare for anything, but the Ravens and the Bengals are good enough to beat two non-playoff teams on the road.

I’ll give the points and take the better squads.

The Picks: BAL (-2.5) – CIN (-5)

Las Vegas @ Tennessee (+2)

Las Vegas clearly wasn’t ready for everything last week when they let Kyler Murray defeat them single-handedly.  They get a reprieve this week as Ryan Tannehill is not nearly the escape artist that Murray is, but I also think they will struggle going across the country to play a 1pm EST game against an angry Titans team.

The Pick: TEN (+2)

San Francisco @ Denver (+1.5)

Bill Simmons once famously created the Ewing Theory, where a team can actually get better once they lose their greatest player.  I’m not saying that Trey Lance is the 49ers greatest player, but I think they will be a better team with Jimmy G.  Certainly good enough to win a road game against the Broncos.

San Francisco’s offense tends to be on a more productive wavelength when Jimmy G is calling the plays.  See what I did there?  That’s what we in the biz label a call-back.

The Pick: SF (+1.5)

Peace Be The Journey.

There was a time in my life where I wanted to get frosted tips.  And when I say “time,” I’ll specify that it lasted for multiple years as a teenager.  The problem was I had no godly way of knowing how to obtain them.  My barbers, the Blust Brothers, never once asked me what I wanted to do when I sat in the chair.  They just started cutting.  If I were to seriously ask them to give me frosted tips I doubt I’d ever be allowed to re-enter their establishment.  Had a stranger approached me on the street and asked if I wanted frosted tips, I would have given them all of my money.

The frosted tips would have gone so well with my knock-off G-Unit shoes and my Chicago Bulls starter jacket.  Clearly I needed help, but it was the trend at the time, and I had girls to chase.

Thank goodness that stranger didn’t approach me in Tiffin, Ohio during the late 1990s.  Think of the horrible path that would have led me!  The point being as it relates to week two in the NFL is not all trends are one’s worth pursuing.  Sure the Rams and the Packers looked horrible, but is that the result of a trend, or just a bad opening week.  Since most of these guys never play a snap during the preseason, I try to build a two-to-three-week buffer before making over-arching decisions on teams.

My 2-3 week one record has me tied for 798th (out of 1598 entries), so almost exactly in the middle.  Apparently they have restructured their payout system so it involves a lot more mid-season payouts, but I’m still operating under the belief that a stranger will pay me $1.5 million if I end up winning.

(For the record – I did not officially enter the contest, so I have no chance of winning anything.  Also for the record, that stranger never showed up with my frosted tip haircut, so I seriously doubt one with a bag of cash will bump into me anytime soon.)

Let’s see if we can go value hunting in week two for some teams that may have had a bad first week and are trying to avoid a complete “frosted tip” rebranding this early in 2022.

WEEK TWO PICKS

New York Jets @ Cleveland (-6)

I will gladly continue to pick against the Browns as long as they keep winning.  Happy to fall on my Supercontest sword again in week two if it means Cleveland can start 2-0 for the first time since 1993. (It hurts so much to type that sentence and know it is factually correct.)

Before frosted tips were even a thing.

The Pick: NYJ (+6)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (+2.5) – Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-2)

A pair of 1-0 teams, but not all 1-0 teams should be considered equal.  New Orleans beat Atlanta – but I’m still not sure how.  Minnesota beat Green Bay because Aaron Rodgers loves to hear himself talk.  How will both respond in week two against more talented teams?

My money is on the favorites.

The Picks: TB (-2.5) – PHI (-2)

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Jacksonville

This number is a bit diluted for several reasons.  One, Indianapolis did not look like the AFC juggernaut many expected them to be in week one.  Two, Jacksonville has won seven in a row at home against the Colts, including last year when a 2-14 Jags team surprisingly knocked off Indy and prevented them from making the playoffs.  And three, the Colts have a 37-year-old Matt Ryan as their quarterback.

I’ll buy the value here and hope for a streak-busting game from Jonathan Taylor.

The Pick: IND (-3.5)

Carolina @ New York Giants (-2)

If rookie kicker Cade York doesn’t make a 58-yard field goal against the Panthers last week, this line looks different.  If the Titans don’t blow a late 13-point lead only to have kicker Randy Bullock miss a game-winning 47-yard field goal, this line looks different.

I’m not thrilled to be backing the Panthers QB on the road, but as Father Jim always told me, “You root with your heart and bet with your wallet.”  Best advice I ever received from a priest.

The Pick: CAR (+2)

Peace Be The Journey.