2022 NFL ATS: Week Four

On By Luke FlorenceIn Cleveland Browns, NFL, NFL Picks, Sports, Uncategorized

I’ve made plenty of mistakes as a dad.  Too many to remember.  I’m probably making one right now as you read this.  I let my kid run around the bases at Progressive Field by himself, only to get tripped nearly immediately.  I often get annoyed too quickly when he eats at the speed of a dying person at the dinner table.  I’ve turned him into a fanatical Cleveland Browns fan.

But I have had a couple of minor victories.  To-date, my son Jack hates Brutus and loathes the Ohio State Buckeyes.  His favorite tennis player is Rafael Nadal.  And he loves to eat banana peppers.  All significant wins in Luke Florence’s personal record book.

Jack turned five this past April and we threw him a birthday party at Chuck E. Cheese.  I should clarify that by “we” I mean his mother.  I went golfing.  Probably another of those mistakes I was talking about, but I digress.

As part of his birthday celebration Jack was going to spend 30 seconds in the Ticket Blaster.  I had talked to him about his strategy and how it might make sense to lift up his shirt to try and trap the tickets.  He nodded and went about watching Bluey for the 10000th time.  And yet to my surprise and utter amusement, my wife sent me a video of Jack attempting to catch tickets by lifting up his shirt.

A huge W for Dad.

However, the biggest accomplishment has to be the early establishment of a bed-time routine.  Not only has it completely eliminated any late-night tantrums, it’s also allowed for Jack to hold us accountable as well.  If we end up slacking on any part of this process, he’ll emphatically let us know.

Currently Jack starts his bed-time routine at 8pm.  We clean up our toys and brush our teeth.  We get some water to take to bed and head upstairs for two books.  After we read our two books, we stop at the bathroom (where Jack asks for my ticket only to promptly “eat” it), wash our hands and get tucked in.  I ask Jack if he had any fun, if he was kind and what was his favorite part of the day.  Lights are out around 8:30.

Although the time-slots have pushed back as he’s gotten older, the general bedtime routine has not.  By my calculation we’ve run this particular routine nearly 1,200 times.  By Malcolm Gladwell’s calculation, I’ll have become an expert (10,000 hours) in bed-time routines by the time Jack is 57-and-a-half.

By that age Jack could very well be tucking me in.

As it relates to these NFL picks, how do you stay consistent?  How do you establish a successful routine that won’t end up with tears?

It sounds relatively simple but it’s best to try and take a step back and trust what you see.

Don’t get caught into the recency bias trap.  It’s hard to win in the NFL, harder to win on the road and not all wins (or losses) should be considered the same.

My 3-2 week three mark has me tied for 649th (out of 1598 entries), so a slight drop despite hitting at a 60% clip as the average win total last week for the entire league was 3.02.  I’m not deterred at all but would like a 4- or 5-win week at some point to start climbing a little faster.

Let’s see if I can continue to stay consistent and keep building a winning routine with these week four picks.

WEEK FOUR PICKS

Miami @ Cincinnati (-4)

Despite Miami’s win over Buffalo, this felt like a particular good spot to take the defending AFC Champions hosting a beat-up and tired team on a short week.

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As Ted Lasso so eloquently said, “How ’bout that?”

The Pick: CIN (-4)

Seattle @ Detroit (-4) – Denver @ Las Vegas (-3)

Despite both Detroit and Las Vegas losing heart-breakers in week two, I still think they are slightly above-average NFL teams who are playing sub-par opponents at home.  I expect both to bounce back with convincing victories in week four.

I’ll give the points and take the better squads.

The Picks: DET (-4) – LV (-3)

Arizona @ Carolina (-1)

I’ve been silently enjoying from afar some of the drama around the Panthers QB this year.  DJ Moore has been a 1,100 yard receiver each of the last three seasons, but through three weeks with his new QB, he’s totaled 7 catches (on 18 targets) for 88 yards.  He looks frustrated, confused and hopeless.  I feel his pain.

But also, sorry not sorry.

The Pick: ARI (+1)

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco (-1.5)

I’m not exactly sure why San Francisco is favored at home against the defending Super Bowl Champions, and usually that confusion makes me stay away.  However, I still believe in Allen Robinson’s fantasy value and I still believe the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC.  If history is any indication, I’ll likely hold onto those beliefs way too long and at a tremendous cost.

But as my good friend Alexander Hamilton once famously penned, “If you stand for nothing Burr, what will you fall for?”

The Pick: LAR (+1.5)

Peace Be The Journey.

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