2022 NFL ATS: Week Four

I’ve made plenty of mistakes as a dad.  Too many to remember.  I’m probably making one right now as you read this.  I let my kid run around the bases at Progressive Field by himself, only to get tripped nearly immediately.  I often get annoyed too quickly when he eats at the speed of a dying person at the dinner table.  I’ve turned him into a fanatical Cleveland Browns fan.

But I have had a couple of minor victories.  To-date, my son Jack hates Brutus and loathes the Ohio State Buckeyes.  His favorite tennis player is Rafael Nadal.  And he loves to eat banana peppers.  All significant wins in Luke Florence’s personal record book.

Jack turned five this past April and we threw him a birthday party at Chuck E. Cheese.  I should clarify that by “we” I mean his mother.  I went golfing.  Probably another of those mistakes I was talking about, but I digress.

As part of his birthday celebration Jack was going to spend 30 seconds in the Ticket Blaster.  I had talked to him about his strategy and how it might make sense to lift up his shirt to try and trap the tickets.  He nodded and went about watching Bluey for the 10000th time.  And yet to my surprise and utter amusement, my wife sent me a video of Jack attempting to catch tickets by lifting up his shirt.

A huge W for Dad.

However, the biggest accomplishment has to be the early establishment of a bed-time routine.  Not only has it completely eliminated any late-night tantrums, it’s also allowed for Jack to hold us accountable as well.  If we end up slacking on any part of this process, he’ll emphatically let us know.

Currently Jack starts his bed-time routine at 8pm.  We clean up our toys and brush our teeth.  We get some water to take to bed and head upstairs for two books.  After we read our two books, we stop at the bathroom (where Jack asks for my ticket only to promptly “eat” it), wash our hands and get tucked in.  I ask Jack if he had any fun, if he was kind and what was his favorite part of the day.  Lights are out around 8:30.

Although the time-slots have pushed back as he’s gotten older, the general bedtime routine has not.  By my calculation we’ve run this particular routine nearly 1,200 times.  By Malcolm Gladwell’s calculation, I’ll have become an expert (10,000 hours) in bed-time routines by the time Jack is 57-and-a-half.

By that age Jack could very well be tucking me in.

As it relates to these NFL picks, how do you stay consistent?  How do you establish a successful routine that won’t end up with tears?

It sounds relatively simple but it’s best to try and take a step back and trust what you see.

Don’t get caught into the recency bias trap.  It’s hard to win in the NFL, harder to win on the road and not all wins (or losses) should be considered the same.

My 3-2 week three mark has me tied for 649th (out of 1598 entries), so a slight drop despite hitting at a 60% clip as the average win total last week for the entire league was 3.02.  I’m not deterred at all but would like a 4- or 5-win week at some point to start climbing a little faster.

Let’s see if I can continue to stay consistent and keep building a winning routine with these week four picks.

WEEK FOUR PICKS

Miami @ Cincinnati (-4)

Despite Miami’s win over Buffalo, this felt like a particular good spot to take the defending AFC Champions hosting a beat-up and tired team on a short week.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

As Ted Lasso so eloquently said, “How ’bout that?”

The Pick: CIN (-4)

Seattle @ Detroit (-4) – Denver @ Las Vegas (-3)

Despite both Detroit and Las Vegas losing heart-breakers in week two, I still think they are slightly above-average NFL teams who are playing sub-par opponents at home.  I expect both to bounce back with convincing victories in week four.

I’ll give the points and take the better squads.

The Picks: DET (-4) – LV (-3)

Arizona @ Carolina (-1)

I’ve been silently enjoying from afar some of the drama around the Panthers QB this year.  DJ Moore has been a 1,100 yard receiver each of the last three seasons, but through three weeks with his new QB, he’s totaled 7 catches (on 18 targets) for 88 yards.  He looks frustrated, confused and hopeless.  I feel his pain.

But also, sorry not sorry.

The Pick: ARI (+1)

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco (-1.5)

I’m not exactly sure why San Francisco is favored at home against the defending Super Bowl Champions, and usually that confusion makes me stay away.  However, I still believe in Allen Robinson’s fantasy value and I still believe the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC.  If history is any indication, I’ll likely hold onto those beliefs way too long and at a tremendous cost.

But as my good friend Alexander Hamilton once famously penned, “If you stand for nothing Burr, what will you fall for?”

The Pick: LAR (+1.5)

Peace Be The Journey.

What Happened This Weekend? Vol. 103

A brief recap of the last 72 hours on a variety of topics including sports, news and personal events.

Cleveland Guardians – Central Champs

Two weeks ago I mentioned how everything the Guardians wanted was right in front of them.  All they had to do was take it.  Well, not only did they fully capitalize on that opportunity, they were damn near perfect in their endeavor.  Going 13-2 since that post 14 days ago, the Guardians capped off their incredible run yesterday when they clinched the American League Central.  Even though the Guardians have the youngest roster in baseball and even though they are almost dead-last in homeruns, they have still found ways to win – several in dramatic fashion.  May 9th might have been the most memorable when Josh Naylor got all the smoke from the Chicago White Sox after his game-tying grand-slam in the ninth inning, and then game-winning three-run homer in the 11th. 

They have been an incredible fun team to watch this year because they are winning in unconventional ways.  They don’t hit homers, but they don’t strike-out.  They steal bases.  They take 1st to 3rd at an elite clip.  They don’t play great team-defense but may have two gold-glove winners.  Their top two pitchers went a combined 23-19, but have been lights out the last two months of the season.  They have a dominant closer and a steady back-end bullpen. 

On April 6th my brother-in-law texted me the following: “Outfield of Mercado, Straw and Zimmer makes me physically ill.”  I responded with, “I like Steven Kwan, the rookie who can play OF.  High contact (hasn’t struck out all spring training).  Hopefully he forces Tito’s hand.”  

Not only did Kwan force Tito’s hand, he may end up with a top-three finish in the American League Rookie of the Year.  While players like Triston McKenzie, Josh Naylor, Emmanuel Clase and Andres Gimenez all deserve recognition for their contributions, the #1 reason this team is headed to the playoffs is Steven Kwan.  He stabilized not only the murky outfield, but the entire lineup in general.  He paved the way for the whole ensemble of rookies the Guardians brought up this year (16 in total).  He almost killed himself leaping into the stands to catch a fly ball.  In other words, he was King Kwan.  One word to describe the Guardians – compete.  They compete like hell and play hard all the way to their last out.  That never-give-up attitude has resulted in a major-league leading number of wins in their final at-bat. 

Heading into the final games of the regular season, the Guardians can now take some time to rest up and get their pitching rotation in order for their upcoming three-game Wild-Card series (Bieber – Game One, McKenzie – Game Two, Quantrill – Game Three). 

Regardless of what happens in the playoffs – and we’ll look at their playoff history in upcoming posts – this season has been remarkable.  The Guardians front-office finally went all-in to play younger guys and not waste at-bats on older/more expensive/less talented players.  The payoff is here and now.  You can’t win the World Series unless you’re in the postseason and the Guardians are emphatically in.  

First Family Vacation

You may have noticed there was no Weekend Recap last week, as I was out embarking on our first Florence Family Vacation (Niagara Falls – Buffalo – Cleveland).  We’ve previously taken Jack (our five-year-old son) on overnight trips that included a hotel visit, but this was the first actual long road-trip taken as an entire family.   All told, the trip was a success.  Jack was perfectly patient during the long-car rides and entertained himself with books, music and coloring.  Our trip included a visit to Niagara Falls (the Canadian side is 100% better), a new aquarium, putt-putt golf, pool-time in the hotel, his first Cleveland Guardians game and a trip around the bases.  

The “trip” verb was no accident as Jack had an unfortunate spill rounding second base on Progressive Field.  Surprisingly enough, it wasn’t Jack’s fault at all.  In fact it was an adult not paying attention to where he was going and inadvertently sent Jack into the dirt.  Yes, this “adult” was an Ohio State Buckeye fan, which helps explains his general lack of overall awareness. 

Jack looked like Jason Kipnis after he touched home plate and was generally more embarrassed than anything.  Tears soon followed after he realized a previous scab on his knee had opened up, but those cries were short-lived as we now point at second base during the games on TV and say to each other, “Jack, that’s right where you slid!”  Good times … I hope.  When Jack went to school the following Wednesday and had the opportunity to share about his vacation, he chose to recall none of this.  Not the pool, not Niagara Falls and not even the Cleveland Guardians game.  Instead, he told his entire class that he went on vacation and got to stay up late watching college football games with his dad.  That was his highlight.  

Odds and Ends

Notre Dame and the Cleveland Browns won in convincing fashion this past weekend, with both the Irish and the Browns controlling the line of scrimmage and utilizing their strong run games.  This method of victory was no surprise for the Browns, but it was a pleasant one for the Irish.  If Notre Dame can continue that positive trend throughout the season then 8 wins is more than obtainable (a far cry from where they were after two weeks).  

Appalachian State continues to play exciting football, this time coming up on the short-side of a 32-28 loss to James Madison.  App State was up 28-3 in this one, before giving up 29 unanswered points.  They play The Citadel next week, and I can’t wait.  

Roger Federer said good-bye to professional tennis this weekend as he announced his retirement following The Laver Cup.  Roger’s last match was a doubles contest with Rafael Nadal as his partner.  While Roger and Rafa ended up losing, it didn’t really matter.  As soon as the final point was won, the world got to say good-bye to Roger who was as gracious with his final words as he was on the court during his two-decade period of dominance.   One of my favorite new TV shows of 2022 was The Rehearsal.  It starred Nathan Fielder and is almost impossible to describe.  This past weekend I started watching Nathan’s first show, Nathan For You (which ran on Comedy Central from 2013-2017) which is absolutely fantastic.  I finished the first eight episodes on HBOMax and cannot wait to see what absurdity Nathan has in store for the next three seasons.   

Until next time, peace be the journey.

2022 NFL ATS: Week Three

My favorite educator in elementary school was my third-grade teacher, Mrs. Marinis.  We played a lot of games in her class to study for tests, like baseball or basketball.  Get a question right and shoot a ball into a trashcan.  Miss a question and you strike-out.  It was perfect for my competitive juices.

Mrs. Marinis also had a great sense of humor which helped me feel completely at ease in her classroom.  I was comfortable expressing my opinion, cracking an occasional joke or even sharing a personal story. I was never afraid of becoming a teacher’s pet, but it often involved shifting my personality slightly to appease the taste of my teacher.  That wasn’t the case with Mrs. Marinis.  She and I were on the same wavelength and just connected.  As clearly evidenced by the following story.

Mrs. Marinis was a lot of great things, but she was not a very good artist.  She was fully self-aware and always quick to tell a self-deprecating story about how she could not draw (two more clear examples of why I loved her).  One afternoon she started drawing an undistinguishable figure on the chalkboard and after a couple of seconds, I jokingly blurted out from the back of the classroom, “that is the most beautifully-drawn witch I’ve ever seen.”  She quickly turned around to stare at me and I immediately thought I had crossed a line in our relationship.  To my surprise she said, “Luke, go to my desk and take every piece of candy you can find.”  Turns out, unbeknownst to me, she actually was trying to draw a witch and was rewarding me for the perceived compliment.  I’ll never forget that moment.

One other memory from Mrs. Marinis’ class was her punishment for forgetting to write our name on top of our papers – we had to stay inside during recess and write our full-name – in cursive – on a piece of paper 50 times.  Missing recess was the ultimate punishment for me and my group of friends, so my best friend Kevin and I decided we would never be penalized.  We proactively prepared by compiling notebooks that exclusively contained our full names.  At one point we each had more than 500 entries, meaning we could hypothetically not put our names on an assignment 10 separate times and we would be spared.  Of course, neither one of us ever forgot to put our names on top of our papers, but we were ready if it happened.

As we enter week three of the 2022 NFL season it’s important to be prepared for anything.  Teams we thought were good before the year started, (Colts, Raiders) may not be.  Teams we thought were bad before the season started (Jaguars, Lions), may not be.  It’s vital to keep an open mind at this early stage and try to capitalize against some lines that may be based in those pre-season evaluations.

My 3-2 week two record has me tied for 595th (out of 1598 entries), so a slight move towards the top.  Winning three games each week is the goal and will continually move me up those rankings as the year progresses.

Let’s see if I can establish some Mrs. Marinis-wavelength connections with these week three picks.

WEEK THREE PICKS

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (-4.5)

After that week two debacle, I told myself I wouldn’t talk about the Browns for one week.  File it under the category of, “if you don’t have anything nice to say, then don’t say anything at all.”

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Happy to take one for the team.

The Pick: PIT (+4.5)

Baltimore @ New England (+2.5) – Cincinnati @ New York Jets (+5)

I’m a believer in the AFC North and I think the two best teams in that division can easily beat the two worst teams in the AFC East.  Yes, I know I just wrote about having to prepare for anything, but the Ravens and the Bengals are good enough to beat two non-playoff teams on the road.

I’ll give the points and take the better squads.

The Picks: BAL (-2.5) – CIN (-5)

Las Vegas @ Tennessee (+2)

Las Vegas clearly wasn’t ready for everything last week when they let Kyler Murray defeat them single-handedly.  They get a reprieve this week as Ryan Tannehill is not nearly the escape artist that Murray is, but I also think they will struggle going across the country to play a 1pm EST game against an angry Titans team.

The Pick: TEN (+2)

San Francisco @ Denver (+1.5)

Bill Simmons once famously created the Ewing Theory, where a team can actually get better once they lose their greatest player.  I’m not saying that Trey Lance is the 49ers greatest player, but I think they will be a better team with Jimmy G.  Certainly good enough to win a road game against the Broncos.

San Francisco’s offense tends to be on a more productive wavelength when Jimmy G is calling the plays.  See what I did there?  That’s what we in the biz label a call-back.

The Pick: SF (+1.5)

Peace Be The Journey.

2022 NFL ATS: Week Two

There was a time in my life where I wanted to get frosted tips.  And when I say “time,” I’ll specify that it lasted for multiple years as a teenager.  The problem was I had no godly way of knowing how to obtain them.  My barbers, the Blust Brothers, never once asked me what I wanted to do when I sat in the chair.  They just started cutting.  If I were to seriously ask them to give me frosted tips I doubt I’d ever be allowed to re-enter their establishment.  Had a stranger approached me on the street and asked if I wanted frosted tips, I would have given them all of my money.

The frosted tips would have gone so well with my knock-off G-Unit shoes and my Chicago Bulls starter jacket.  Clearly I needed help, but it was the trend at the time, and I had girls to chase.

Thank goodness that stranger didn’t approach me in Tiffin, Ohio during the late 1990s.  Think of the horrible path that would have led me!  The point being as it relates to week two in the NFL is not all trends are one’s worth pursuing.  Sure the Rams and the Packers looked horrible, but is that the result of a trend, or just a bad opening week.  Since most of these guys never play a snap during the preseason, I try to build a two-to-three-week buffer before making over-arching decisions on teams.

It was gonna be me.

My 2-3 week one record has me tied for 798th (out of 1598 entries), so almost exactly in the middle.  Apparently they have restructured their payout system so it involves a lot more mid-season payouts, but I’m still operating under the belief that a stranger will pay me $1.5 million if I end up winning.

(For the record – I did not officially enter the contest, so I have no chance of winning anything.  Also for the record, that stranger never showed up with my frosted tip haircut, so I seriously doubt one with a bag of cash will bump into me anytime soon.)

Let’s see if we can go value hunting in week two for some teams that may have had a bad first week and are trying to avoid a complete “frosted tip” rebranding this early in 2022.

WEEK TWO PICKS

New York Jets @ Cleveland (-6)

I will gladly continue to pick against the Browns as long as they keep winning.  Happy to fall on my Supercontest sword again in week two if it means Cleveland can start 2-0 for the first time since 1993. (It hurts so much to type that sentence and know it is factually correct.)

Before frosted tips were even a thing.

The Pick: NYJ (+6)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (+2.5) – Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-2)

A pair of 1-0 teams, but not all 1-0 teams should be considered equal.  New Orleans beat Atlanta – but I’m still not sure how.  Minnesota beat Green Bay because Aaron Rodgers loves to hear himself talk.  How will both respond in week two against more talented teams?

My money is on the favorites.

The Picks: TB (-2.5) – PHI (-2)

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Jacksonville

This number is a bit diluted for several reasons.  One, Indianapolis did not look like the AFC juggernaut many expected them to be in week one.  Two, Jacksonville has won seven in a row at home against the Colts, including last year when a 2-14 Jags team surprisingly knocked off Indy and prevented them from making the playoffs.  And three, the Colts have a 37-year-old Matt Ryan as their quarterback.

I’ll buy the value here and hope for a streak-busting game from Jonathan Taylor.

The Pick: IND (-3.5)

Carolina @ New York Giants (-2)

If rookie kicker Cade York doesn’t make a 58-yard field goal against the Panthers last week, this line looks different.  If the Titans don’t blow a late 13-point lead only to have kicker Randy Bullock miss a game-winning 47-yard field goal, this line looks different.

I’m not thrilled to be backing the Panthers QB on the road, but as Father Jim always told me, “You root with your heart and bet with your wallet.”  Best advice I ever received from a priest.

The Pick: CAR (+2)

Peace Be The Journey.

What Happened This Weekend? Vol. 102

A brief recap of the last 72 hours on a variety of topics including sports, news and personal events.

September 11th – Never Forget

Life is often about moving on, but some events require one to look back.  September 11th is one of those unique occurrences.  We do this to ensure we don’t forget, because the longer we get from that horrific day 21 years ago, the more difficult it can be to remember.  

For many of us, we can recall the particular events of September 11, 2001, with uncanny detail, especially considering the passage of time.  We know it was a Tuesday.  We can recall the weather, where we were when we heard the news and the general uneasiness in the air.  While those memories help tell our personal story, it’s also important to remember the lives that were lost, the horror that struck our country, and the courage shown by so many.

Eventually I’ll have to tell this story to my five-year-old son, and while that will be challenging, it will also be vital so the next generation also never forgets.  

In a Glass Case of Emotion – Browns Week One

It was the worst of times.  It was the best of times.  It was the age of wisdom.  It was the age of foolishness.  It was the epoch of belief.  It was the epoch of incredulity.  Charles Dickens penned that opening in a “Tale of Two Cities,” and I lived that entire range of emotions in the last 5 minutes of the Browns season opening win against the Carolina Panthers.  

Winning in the NFL is not easy.  It’s even harder when you only throw for 138 yards.  It gets even more challenging when you have blown coverages in the 4th quarter, resulting in a game-changing 75-yard touchdown pass.  And yet, the Browns somehow found a way to escape Charlotte with a 26-24 victory.  Having Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Myles Garrett certainly helped erase several of those aforementioned mistakes.

For a large portion of this game it felt eerily similar to the Browns season opener last year in Kansas City.  Cleveland dominated for three quarters in both only to see their offense sputter and their defense crumble.  The two big differences between the openers were the Browns didn’t turn the ball over against the Panthers (like they did vs KC) and this time around the Browns have Cade bleeping York kicking field goals.

Several NFL experts felt the Browns made a mistake when drafting Cade York in the 4th round of the NFL draft, but any “true” Browns fans would tell you it was the best pick of their draft.  Cleveland missed a higher percentage of field goals than any team last year and opponents did not miss a single one.  It was a problem and it cost them games last year.  It likely would have done the same again in 2022 had the Browns front-office ignored the position this offseason.  Thank goodness they didn’t.  

This game felt more important than other season-opening debacles, and I can’t quite put my finger on it.  Part of that had to do with the Panthers starting QB, but I think it was mostly centered around the entire Deshaun Watson circus that enveloped this team for the last six months.  Winning goes a long way to moving on and thankfully the Browns can now move on to week two with a 1-0 record.  If they beat the Jets they will be 2-0 for the first time since 1993.  That was twenty-nine years ago.  I was eight.  

Saturday Schedule Frees Up

We signed our son up for some fall baseball (coach-pitch) and the eight-week schedule runs on Saturdays until around Halloween.  I was a little nervous because the game-times are sporadic (could start as late as 2pm) and required a two-hour time commitment.  There was always a chance I would miss Notre Dame football games depending on how the schedule fell – but after last week’s game against Marshall, I’m hopeful all of Jack’s games coincide with an ND contest.  I’d rather watch a bunch of five and six-year-olds pick their noses and group chase a run-away baseball than watch any more of Notre Dame football this season.

Marcus Freeman was supposed to come in and lead this program to new heights.  He is now 0-3 as the head-coach (worst start ever for an ND coach) and crash-landed after his honeymoon.  There is a very real possibility this team does not even qualify for a bowl game.  Their offense is stagnant, and their defense lacks any game-changing personnel.  I don’t see how they can compete with Clemson, USC or BYU, and games against California, North Carolina and Stanford now appear to be toss-ups at best.  As my nearly 70-year-0ld father texted me after the Marshall loss, “ouch.”  

Brian Kelly had some bad losses as he dropped games against Tulsa and Navy, but Kelly also had a track record of winning to rely on.  Freeman does not.  He certainly can turn things around, but the questions will be how much time he is given, and how much of a learning curve will we have to endure.   

Sweeping Away in Minnesota

The Cleveland Guardians headed into their three-game series at Minnesota on a down-swing.  They had just blown a ninth-inning contest to Kansas City and their lead in the American League Central had shrunk to just a game and a half.  There was a very realistic chance that the Guardians would leave Minnesota looking up in the standings.  Fortunately Cleveland threw out their top three starters and walked out of Minnesota with a three-game sweep.  

Minnesota can 100% still win the division, but they have dropped to third place and are now 4.5 games behind Cleveland.  The Twins come to town next week for a five-game series, but their margin of error has been reduced to nearly zero.  It appears the White Sox will be the biggest challenge to the Guardians.  As a result, please send your thoughts and prayers to Tony LaRussa so he can get back to coaching very soon.  

The success of this team will depend on their ability to win when Cal Quantrill, Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber are on the bump.  They have carried this team the majority of the year and will be relied on to continue pitching at a high-rate if they hope to win the division race.  

We are down to 24 games, and Cleveland has nine of them against either the White Sox or the Twins.  If they can win at least six of those then they will be in full control of their playoff chances.  Easier said than done, but it’s mid-September and the Guardians are in first place.  Everything they want is right in front of them.  

Odds and Ends

Two weeks into the college football season and Appalachian State has established themselves as must-see TV.  Their week one game vs UNC was incredible and their week two upset at #6 Texas A&M was equally compelling. 

After Georgia Southern upset Nebraska I thought Scott Frost would have a difficult time keeping his job.  For one of the few times in my life, I thought correctly as Frost was let go the following day.  Poor guy was also given a $15 million buyout for his efforts.  Most of us go on performance-plans for sub-par work.  Others become multi-millionaires.  This is America.

Congratulations to Carlos Alcaraz for winning the U.S. Open championship on Sunday over Casper Ruud.  Not only did Alcaraz win his first major title, he also became the youngest-ever #1 ranked player in the world.  When I was nineteen, I won the Ohio University intramural tennis championship, so I can relate.  

Finished the first season of What We Do In The Shadows on Hulu, and I can’t remember the last time I’ve laughed so consistently at a television show.  In particular, the second episode where the vampires attend the City Council meeting had me in stitches. 

Also watched Vengeance, starring BJ Novak and Ashton Kutcher.  It was a solid directorial debut for Novak; one that had me not looking at my phone throughout (I’ve never sounded more millennial).  Vengeance also included a cameo appearance by John Mayer, who absolutely delivered in his performance.  100 percent.  

Until next time, peace be the journey.